Here we are at the 33rd iteration of the WIAA state track meet in a La Crosse and here I am for the first time taking a stab at predicting a few things.

Some of which I will be right on, some of which I will be horrendously wrong on. What I will not attempt to do is predict the weather, which of course, as of Thursday, May 31, is calling for a 45 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Having felt the brunt of La Crosse storms many times in the past, all I have to say is:

BLEAH!!!!

I wish I could say that that educated estimate by learned meteorologists was wrong, but they are likely to be right. And this is in a month where Milwaukee had its sixth-driest may on record. I know Milwaukee is over 200 miles to the east of La Crosse but crying out loud weather gods, aren’t you guys still heaving with laughter from the D1 Saturday meet of 2021, where the boys’ 1,600 meter runners had to get lifeboats to get to the finish line?

I mean for real people, the seniors this year are the freshmen of 2020, the spring of no track, and these kids deserve a beautiful weekend full of sunshine and light winds. I mean they have earned it. Their optimism and engagement in the face of COVID, skyrocketing college costs, book banning, rampant trans- and homophobia, unchecked climate change and the non-stop tragedy of endless school shootings is downright awe-inspiring.

They deserve better, so much better, so weatherman, between now and Friday afternoon, this forecast has to change!!!

With that off my chest, I gaze into my crystal ball and go for broke with a few casual observations track activities.

A. It will be challenging for both Andrew Regnier of Waunakee and Nathan Cumberbatch of Shorewood to take down the D1 and D2 boys 800 meter records, respectively. Both of these superstars have blown away existing 800 records, with Regnier being the first Wisconsin prep runner to go under 1:50, with his 1:49.35 at the Arcadia Invitational in California in early April.

But both have the same challenging 400, 800 and 4×400 relay schedule and both will have heats of the 400 and 4×400 on Friday and then will, presumably, have their 400 finals on Saturday all before the 800 final. The 800 will be run late on what promises to be a sunny, hot-as-Hades 90-degree Saturday. Logic dictates that these wise seniors will not sacrifice themselves for one state record, and rather will go for the state titles, which last longer in history anyway.

I still remember what Hall of Fame Whitefish Bay distance coach Mike Miller told his star Camille Davre when Davre was contemplating going for the D1 triple crown of the 800, 1,600 and 3,200 in 2017: “Records are temporary, state titles are forever.”

Davre heeded that maxim and is now forever in the state history books as a 10-time WIAA champion.

Further complicating Cumberbatch’s task is the fact, that the Greyhounds have an excellent chance as repeating as state D2 team titlists so Cumberbatch, a Southern California recruit, may play it close to the vest and try to secure the maximum number of points possible for the Greyhounds.

B. The D1 boys discus record will go down in a big way (provided the weather gods heed my Friday request): As noted in a previous post, I was there 10 million years ago (it only seems like it was that long, it was 1993 actually), when Luke Sullivan of Verona set the official D1 state discus mark of 193-3. Since then, that mark has been surpassed several times in the regular season, sometimes by as much as 22 feet (see Sean Pruitt of Valders in 2007) but it has been resistant to official state meet threats, foiled either by the weather gods or by sheer good luck.

But now, two very sturdy and determined juniors, defending state D1 state shot and discus champion Ben Smith of Hortonville (203-9 at sectional) and Bryce Ruland of Waterford (202-4) come to take their hacks at Sullivan’s mark. The pair are in rarified air for Wisconsin prep athletes, as they rank one-two nationally in the MileSplit rankings. Ruland threw a staggering 210-8 at the Lake Geneva Badger for the national lead, a position formerly held by Smith when he flipped the oval 209-11 at the FVA relays on May 2.

Both are not one trick ponies and have gone over 200 on multiple occasions and it is quite conceivable that both could over 200 feet Friday later afternoon if the conditions are right.

But only IF the conditions are right and as anyone who has been in La Crosse in early June, that is purely a roll of the dice.

They were not in 2021 when Verona’s Jackson Acker took his whack at the mark only to have that ill-timed monsoon foil his efforts. Acker had thrown over 200 feet on three occasions (with a best of 207-6), the last time as recently as the regional qualifier, and seemed primed to smash Sullivan’s mark for good, but it was not to be. Under miserable conditions, he still threw a noteworthy 183-9 for the win and also claimed the shot put for good measure.

The Wisconsin football team fullback took a philosophical and ultimately successful attitude when he and his coach determined how ugly that June Saturday weather was going to be.

“This is not record-setting weather, but winning weather,” he told me for a story in the Wisconsin State Journal.

The fates seem to like Mr. Sullivan’s mark and are reluctant to let it go. Rain this past May in Wisconsin was as rare as civility in Congress in recent years but of course, there is that Friday forecast, a potential monkey wrench in a potentially historic year!

However, maybe we’ll get lucky and there will be a dry two-hour window to get the discus done on Friday which would also benefit Hartford’s Aaron Cummings as he attempts to take down the nine-year old D1 pole vault record of 16-1, which he has an excellent chance at doing!

We can always hope (LOL)!

C. Smith will take a whack at the mighty Steve Marcelle’s shot put mark: Smith is also the nation’s leading shot putter with a perfectly executed 68-10 1/2 effort executed at the De Pere Invite on May 10. Smith at about 6-1, is not anywhere near the 6-6 size of the mammoth Green Bay Preble graduate Marcelle, who set his mark of 67-6 in 2005, but Smith’s technique is a marvel to look at, with a fast, tightly wound, extremely efficient spin. His top toss at De Pere featured textbook technique, was dead-center down the middle and a good couple of feet beyond the sandy landing area.

The shot put will be contested on Saturday, which is forecast to be clear and very warm (around 90 degrees). That isn’t always the best of conditions for throwers, but maybe Smith’s technique can overcome that obstacle.

D. Arrowhead junior hurdler Logan Hicks will take down at least one record this weekend: Hicks has been rapidly climbing the ranks of the state’s all-time elite hurdlers ever since he took fourth in the 300 intermediates as a freshman in 2021.

As part of the staggeringly over-loaded Homestead regional on May 22, he engaged in a pair of thrilling duals with Menomonee Falls’ Nathan Taylor edging him a thousandth of a second in the 110 highs (both were clocked in 14.44) and then came back a short time later to fly by the official state 300 hurdles record of 37.49 with an astounding 37.29 effort.

Three days later at the sectional, Hicks turned in a state all-time top 10 time of 14.1 within striking distance of Daurice Fountain of Madison Memorial and his 2014 state record of 14.04. The unofficial state mark is 13.96 set by two-time state high hurdle champ Matt Widule of Menomonee Falls in the 2010 greater Metro Conference meet.

And both the official and the unofficial marks may go down because the boys D1 high hurdle field is deep. Aside from Taylor, who has a best of 14.22 this year, swift challengers Greendale’s Izaiah Correa (14.17 at sectional), Appleton West’s Liam Richards (14.22) and Hayden May of De Pere (14.24) could push Hicks to record-setting limits in the highs.

In the intermediates, Hicks has a full second plus on the field, so his record motivation will have to come from within. At that same regional race, Taylor turned in the state’s second best 300 time of 38.04.

Hicks’ coach Chris Herriot, who has led the Warhawks to the last two D1 state team titles (they are co-favorites with powerhouse Kimberly), admits for all the abundance of riches he has enjoyed in the past, that “Hicks is special.”

And as for Hicks himself, his immediate reaction after that regional 300 record break was an exeburent:

“I want to do that again!”

He may just do so.

E. Kimberly will take down the boys’ D1 4×200 relay record: When the WIAA brought back the 4×200 relay in the early 2000s it immediately became a playground for excellence at schools like Milwaukee Vincent, Muskego, Menomonee Falls, Whitefish Bay, Racine Park and Brookfield East, dropping the record dramatically and creating some of the most memorable races in recent history.

The three-way photo finish with East, Plymouth and Falls in the 2016 state final, with all three teams under 1:27 is still one of the best races in WIAA history. Enter into the fray Kimberly, which has built a track empire built on the formula of strength and speed (it is the shot and discus capital of Wisconsin, just take a look at state results from the last 10 years if you don’t believe me). This year, they have a team of three seniors Jack Schreiber, Drew Eiden and Jack Statz and one precocious freshman Alejandro Pagan Vega who have absolutely owned the event all season and who dropped a brilliant 1:26.71 time at sectional, under Muskego’s five-year old record of 1:26.82.

The Papermakers are more than a second ahead of anyone else in a good field so the title and record are theirs easily with simple execution. But the 4×200 is a race fraught with danger, as full speed runners brin the stick into runners barely getting up to speed. Many titles and state meet berths have gone to ruin with bungled passes at the state and sectional levels. Falls’ coaches told me that in 2010, when they set the then record (and still top six all-time) of 1:27.03 and won the state title, the last pass was collected by the anchor runner with a scant two strong fingers.

This Kimberly team seems to be working seamlessly as one unit. Presuming they are careful in the trials and get home safely to Saturday’s finals, that hot, sunny day seems to be built for speed and a little history.

A new record should be had.

F: Chippewa Falls’ Brooklyn Sandvig may sweep the D1 100, 200 and 400 titles, but it won’t be easy: Sandvig, a NCAA D1 Iowa State commit, dominated these three sprints last year in the D1 meet, and will be a favorite again. Her best event may be the 400 where she turned in a 54.55 clocking, not that far off of all-time Wausau West great Brooke Jaworski’s six-year old state mark of 53.71. Sandvig, who also won the 400 in 2021 as well as taking third in both the 100 and 200 will get a swift challenge in all three disciplines from Whitefish Bay’s Lola Kolawole, who is actually seeded first in both the 100 (11.84) and 200 (24.53).

Kolawole, a Virginia commit, was second to Sandvig in both the 100 and 200 and fourth in the 400 in 2021 and second in the 100 and 200 again in 2022. She has decided to go for the triple sprint this year, despite having led the Bay 4×400 relay to a 4:02 clocking earlier in the year. It is a time that would have been among the favorites in this year’s state meet.

Kolawole is betting on herself this year against Sandvig, and it may payoff in gold on Saturday.

G. Homestead’s Owen Bosley will finish high school with a boys’ distance gold medal (or maybe two): Bosley does not talk much about his big brother Drew Bosley, who won 1,600 and 3,200 WIAA boys’ titles at Homestead in 2018 and 2019 and who was also a two-time state cross country champ and has since become a cross country and track All-American at Northern Arizona.

Owen was second in the 3,200 last year and had something of a disappointing fifth place finish in the state cross country meet last fall. But the Harvard commit has been nothing but dominant in state distance circles this spring as he searches for his first WIAA state titles.

Owen owns Wisconsin’s fastest times in both the 1,600 (4:11.13) and 3,200 (8:54.19) by wide margins and has looked fit and fast coming down the stretch. He has shown the ability to run well both tactically and to also just take out a race and own it. He has said he is enjoying his final high school season and is mentally and emotionally ready for whatever comes his way in La Crosse.

Which in my mind and many others is two trips to the top of the state podium for him.

UP NEXT: My analysis of this potentially great state meet (and how right or wrong I was here) and in the future, I will finish up my analysis of how imbalanced the WIAA sectionals were this season. An informal bet from me is that the D1 West Allis Hale sectional will dominate this meet, especially on the boys’ side.